Countries of North Africa, the Middle East and Asia will be hurt the most by the decline of Ukrainian wheat exports
The major importers of Ukrainian wheat are the countries of North Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. They are the ones that will be hurt the most as no goods are shipped from Ukrainian ports in the Black and Azov Seas due to the war, explained Natalia Shpygotska, the senior analyst at Dragon Capital.
In particular, Ukrainian wheat constituted the largest part of imports to Lebanon (more than 90% in 2020), Tunisia (more than 50%), Pakistan (more than 50%), and Libya (40%).
But the problem for the poor countries will arise not only because of the shortage of Ukrainian wheat but also from the sharp rise of the global prices if Ukraine doesn’t recover its exports. “For some countries, it may just be too expensive,” stated the expert. Earlier, the UN agency warned the war in Ukraine could trigger a 20% food price rise.