Post-COVID recovery of global trade is at risk because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Global merchandise trade volume will grow by 3.0% instead of 4.7% in 2022 because of the outbreak of the Russian war in Ukraine, according to the revised projections of the World Trade Organization.

The most immediate economic impact of the war has been a sharp rise in commodity prices. Despite their small shares in world trade and output, Russia and Ukraine are key suppliers of essential goods, including food, energy, and fertilizers, supplies of which are now threatened by the war. Grain shipments through Black Sea ports have already been halted, with potentially dire consequences for food security in poor countries.

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