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Russia’s war in Ukraine can keep global commodity prices at historically high levels through the end of 2024

Russia’s war in Ukraine can keep global commodity prices at historically high levels through the end of 2024

During the last two years, the world has experienced the largest commodity since the 1970s. Russian war in Ukraine made the situation even worse. It has dealt a major shock to commodity markets, altering global patterns of trade, production, and consumption in ways that will keep prices at historically high levels through the end of 2024, according to the World Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook report.

Energy prices are expected to rise more than 50% in 2022 before easing in 2023 and 2024. Non-energy prices, including agriculture and metals, are projected to increase almost 20% in 2022 and will also moderate in the following years. Nevertheless, commodity prices are expected to remain well above the most recent five-year average. In the event of a prolonged war or additional sanctions on Russia, prices could be even higher and more volatile than currently projected.

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