Ukraine will face a deep recession in 2022 with potential output contraction as high as 25-35% — IMF

According to the IMF’s latest staff report on Ukraine, the Ukrainian economy is set to experience a deep recession this year given the consumption being limited to basic needs with the population displaced, supply disruptions, the destruction of infrastructure, a significant decline of exports, and imports, and exceptional uncertainty. The IMF expects Ukrainian output to fall at least by 10% in 2022.

However, data on wartime real GDP contraction in such countries as Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen suggest that annual output contraction could eventually be much higher, in the range of 25-35%.

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