Ukraine’s economy is predicted shrink by nearly 1/3 this year due to war — EBRD

Russia’s war on Ukraine will cause the latter’s economy to shrink by 30% in 2022, the latest forecast from the EBRD shows. In March 2022, the bank expected the Ukrainian GDP to fall ‘only’ by 20%.

The Russian invasion has brought to an abrupt halt an economic recovery that had begun in Ukraine last year. GDP growth in Ukraine is forecast to bounce back to 25% next year, but this assumes that substantial reconstruction work is already underway by then. How long the hostilities last, the shape of any post-war settlement, the extent of reconstruction, and how many refugees return home will also influence the recovery speed.

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